The Business of Life

Haste Makes Waste: Old Advice, New Application

This past week, I took some time to consider the broader implications of the bailout bill that passed the Senate in an end-run vote on Wednesday night. Basically our Senators, knowing that approval in their chamber was a foregone conclusion, decided to sweeten the bill rejected on Monday by the House in order to entice Representatives to pass it the second time around. It was also a bold-faced attempt to pressure legislators to pass the band-aid bailout quickly to avoid dire consequences in the markets. I believe that I can now comment on some of the developments with a little perspective gained through reflection on this complex issue.



First, I think it is foolish to assume that we are at the gates of hell and must do something - ANYTHING - to avoid certain disaster. It is true that banks' balance sheets are choking on bad debt, it's true banks are not lending each other (and us too) any money, and it's true that our financial markets are influencing those across the world. At the same time, however, start-up community banks are proliferating, offering commercial and residential financing at aggressive rates to qualified customers. Bad banks (WaMu, Wachovia) and investment houses (Lehman, Bear Stearns) are being acquired by good ones (JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo). Unemployment remains manageable, inflation is in check and major economic indicators are stable. This sense of time running out is foolish. This is a problem that developed slowly and a comprehensive solution cannot be crafted overnight. As my grandmother often said, "If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?"



Second, to sweeten the bill with incentives like raising the FDIC deposit limits, adding tax breaks and including various pet programs is insulting to the American people and a denigration of the importance of this legislation. The add-ons provide no real benefits to the ordinary citizen or small business and increase the total cost of this bailout by almost 22%! This is truly "putting lipstick on a pig." Lest Senator McCain think about weighing in, this is not a comment on your choice for Vice President.



Third, there is broad acknowledgement that this is not a good plan but it is merely "the best we have." Wait a minute! Let's not forget that this is essentially the solution put forward by an Administration that gave us the crisis in the first place due to lax oversight and an emphasis on artificially inflating home values and overheating the market. It is the plan of an ultimate Wall Street insider and an academic given to comparisons with the Great Depression. It is the plan of an Administration that took a budget supplus of over a half-TRILLION dollars and turned it into a massive deficit in less than 36 months! It is also the plan that has been rejected by over 200 prominent economists in an open letter to the Treasury Secretary. It is a plan that ignores the recommendations of former high-level government and industry leaders.



Finally, there is no shortage of good ideas in the arena if we would only take the time to listen and build coalitions and consensus. George Soros, the billionaire investor and currency trader, says that an effective plan must address root problems in the housing market and stimulate appreciation, and this plan does not. Yale University economists have floated a plan to refinance mortgages for EVERY owner-occupied dwelling (not just those in foreclosure / pre-foreclosure) at a low-fixed rate backed by the government at far less cost than the bailout bill. Still other economists believe that the market can correct itself without any massive government intervention. They acknowledge that we must do SOMETHING to shore up the short-term lending that is the lifeblood of small businesses and large corporations alike but it falls far short of this rescue mission to nowhere. In fact, a simple solution may be to invest in these institutions through stock and warrant purchases and allow them to treat and/or dispose of these distressed assets in the normal course of business as values improve and markets recover.



America does not need a rush to judgment and a knee-jerk plan. We need the best and most diverse minds in government and the private sector to craft a comprehensive and workable plan to resolve the immediate circumstances and plan for the long-term health of our economy. We need to do this on an aggressive timetable with a great sense of urgency. We do not need to "blow up the dam" because a few boats sank on the lake. Unfortunately, by the time you read this we may have done just that. And our haste will surely make waste.

Labels: bailout, Bank of America, FDIC, George Soros, Great Depression, House of Representatives, JP Morgan, Senate, Wachovia, Wall Street, WaMu, Wells Fargo

posted by Tom Hagerty @ 7:13 AM